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Psychology
Success in trading is 80%
psychological
and 20% the traders
methodology
If one had the perfect
trading system and
published it on the front
page of the Wall Street Journal,
one would find that:
only 10% of the people
using the perfect system will make money
while 90% will lose it.
In order to become a successful trader, you do
not only need a successful and reliable trading system, you will also need
to be able to -
-
trade with strict discipline.
-
wait with patience for the right moment
according to your system to enter or exit a trade.
-
be able to stay calm under stressful
situations.
It takes time to develop skill and confidence.
There is no quick solution!
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The following article describes the struggle
to develop into a good trader:
The 5 Steps to
becoming a trader
Step
One: Unconscious Incompetence.
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This is the first
step you take when starting to look into trading.
You
know that trading is a good way of making money because you've heard so
many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately,
just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy
- after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down - what's
the big secret to that then - lets get cracking! |
Unfortunately, just as
when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very
quickly that you haven't got the first clue about what you're trying to do.
You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns
against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again.
You may have initial
success, and that's even worse - because it tells your brain that this
really is simple and you start to risk more money.
You try to turn your
losses around by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you'll get away
with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised. You
are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.
This step can last for
a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move onto
the next stage.
Step Two - Conscious
Incompetence
Step two is where
you realize that there is more work involved in trading and that you
might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realize
that you are an incompetent trader - you don't have the skills or the
insight to turn a regular profit.
You now set about
buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from
USA to the Ukraine. and begin your search for the holy grail.
During this time you
will be a system nomad - you will flick from method to method day by day and
week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does
work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you'll be ecstatic that this
is the one that will make all the difference.
You will test out
automated systems on Metatrader, you'll play with moving averages, Fibonacci
lines, support & resistance, Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a
hundred other things all in the vein hope that your 'magic system' starts
today. You'll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of
reversal with your indicators and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades
and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.
You'll go into the
live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why
it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb
that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where
you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars - they cant
be making that amount because you've studied and you don't make that, you
know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they're in there day
after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.
You will be like a
teenager - the traders that make money will freely give you advice but
you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and
overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to - but you
know better. You'll consider following the calls that others make but even
then it wont work so you try paying for signals from someone else - they
don't work for you either.
You might even
approach a 'guru' like Rob Booker or someone on a chat board who promises to
make you into a trader (usually for a fee of course). Whether the guru is
good or not you won't win because there is no replacement for screen time
and you still think you know best.
This step can last
ages and ages - in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as
personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year and
more nearer 3 years. This is also the step when you are most likely to give
up through sheer frustration.
Around 60% of new
traders die out in the first 3 months - they give up and this is good -
think about it - if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. Another
20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to
blow their account which of course it does.
What may surprise you
is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years - and they
will think they are safe in the water - but even at 3 years only a further
5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently.
By the way - they are
real figures, not just some I've picked out of my head - so when you get to
3 years in the game don't think its plain sailing from there.
Many people argued
with me about these timescales - funny enough none of them have been trading
for more that 3 years - if you think you know better then ask on a board for
someone who's been trading 5 years and ask them how long it takes to become
fully 100% proficient.
Sure I guess there
will be exceptions to the rule - but I haven't met any yet.
Eventually you do
begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and
money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all
but given up maybe 3 or 4 times but now its in your blood
One day - in a split
second moment you will enter stage 3.
Step 3 - The Eureka
Moment
Towards the end of
stage two you begin to realize that it's not the system that is making
the difference. You realize that its actually possible to make money
with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head
and money management right! You start to read books on the psychology of
trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and
finally comes the eureka moment.
The eureka moment
causes a new connection to be made in your brain.
You suddenly realize
that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market
will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 minutes.
Because of this
revelation you stop taking any notice of what anyone thinks - what this news
item will do, and what that event will do to the markets. You become an
individual with your own method of trading.
You start to work just
one system that you mould to your own way of trading, you're starting to get
happy and you define your risk threshold.
You start to take
every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with.
When the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in
your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it, it isn't your fault - as
soon as you realize that the trade is bad you close it. The next trade or
the one after it or the one after that will have higher odds of success
because you know your system works.
You stop looking at
trading results from a trade-to-trade perspective and start to look at
weekly figures knowing that one bad trade does not a poor system make.
You have realized in
an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your
'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know
the probabilities stack in your favor.
You learn about proper
money management and leverage - risk of account etc., etc. - and this time
it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing
a year ago with a smile. You weren't ready then, but you are now. The eureka
moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the
market.
Step 4 - Conscious
Competence
You are making
trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily
as you take wins. You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully
accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it
looses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain
to your account.
You are now at a
point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will
have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips -
generally you are breaking even and not losing money.
You are now conscious
of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are
getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have
to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to
make more money than you lose consistently.
You'll start the day
on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you've given
those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now
begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the
next and so on.
This lasts about 6
months ...
Step Five -
Unconscious Competence
Now we're cooking
- just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade -
you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on
autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 200 pips
in a day doesn't make you any more excited that getting 1 pips.
You see the
newbies in the forum shouting 'go dollar go' as if they are urging on a
horse to win in the grand national and you see yourself - but many years
ago now.
This is trading
utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a
rapidly growing account.
You're a star in the
trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognize yourself
in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you
know most of it is futile because they're teenagers - some of them will get
to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower -
literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.
Trading is no longer
exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to bits - like everything in
life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're
doing your job and that's that.
Finally you grow out
of the chat rooms and find a few choice people who you converse with about
the markets without being influenced at all.
All the time you are
honing your methods to extract the maximum profit from the market without
increasing risk. Your method of trading doesn't change - it just gets better
- you now have what women call 'intuition'
You can now say with
your head held high "I'm a currency trader" but to be honest you don't even
bother telling anyone - it's a job like any other.
I hope you have
enjoyed reading this journey into a traders mind and that hopefully you've
identified with some points in here.
Remember that only 5%
will actually make it - but the reason for that isn't ability, its staying
power and the ability to change your perceptions and paradigms as new
information comes available.
The losers are those
who wanted to 'get rich quick' but approached the market and within 6 months
put on a pair of blinkers so they couldn't see the obvious - a kind of "this
is the way I see it and that's that" scenario - refusing to assimilate new
information that changes that perception.
I am happy to tell you
that the reason I started trading was because of the 'get rich quick'
mindset. Just that now I see it as 'get rich slow'
If you're thinking
about giving up I have one piece of advice for you ....
Ask yourself the
question "how many years would you go to college if you knew for a fact that
there was a million dollars a year job at the end of it?
Take care and good
trading to you all.
I got hold of this
article in a
forum and the authors name is Soultrader.
I think this article
sums up what it will take to become a successful trader.
Enjoy your trading!
Johan
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Disclaimer
Risk Disclosure:
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not
be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against
you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you
should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience,
and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of
some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest
money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks
associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an
independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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